Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 16,090
2 New Jersey 13,928
3 Massachusetts 9,613
4 Rhode Island 8,768
5 Connecticut 8,214
6 District of Columbia 6,797
7 Louisiana 6,268
8 Delaware 5,173
9 Illinois 4,616
10 Michigan 4,324
11 Maryland 4,048
12 Pennsylvania 3,989
13 South Dakota 2,925
14 Indiana 2,866
15 Colorado 2,798
16 Nebraska 2,756
17 Iowa 2,738
18 Georgia 2,568
19 Mississippi 2,500
20 Virginia 2,077
21 Washington 2,003
22 Tennessee 1,822
23 New Hampshire 1,786
24 New Mexico 1,779
25 Nevada 1,749
26 Kansas 1,660
27 Ohio 1,654
28 Florida 1,650
29 Utah 1,553
30 Alabama 1,552
31 North Dakota 1,513
32 Vermont 1,419
33 California 1,360
34 Missouri 1,328
35 Wisconsin 1,315
36 South Carolina 1,260
37 Arizona 1,149
38 Arkansas 1,117
39 Minnesota 1,104
40 North Carolina 1,097
41 Kentucky 1,092
42 Texas 1,083
43 Idaho 1,067
44 Oklahoma 973
45 Maine 857
46 Wyoming 741
47 West Virginia 660
48 Oregon 624
49 Puerto Rico 549
50 Alaska 496
51 Hawaii 431
52 Montana 425

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 327
2 District of Columbia 326
3 Massachusetts 290
4 New Jersey 279
5 Nebraska 251
6 Connecticut 235
7 New York 227
8 Illinois 214
9 Maryland 199
10 Iowa 189
11 Delaware 131
12 Pennsylvania 127
13 Kansas 118
14 Virginia 108
15 Louisiana 106
16 Indiana 105
17 Tennessee 104
18 Mississippi 97
19 Michigan 94
20 Georgia 93
21 Minnesota 93
22 New Hampshire 91
23 Colorado 83
24 New Mexico 82
25 South Dakota 80
26 Wisconsin 65
27 Ohio 57
28 Arizona 53
29 North Dakota 52
30 Utah 50
31 Nevada 49
32 North Carolina 49
33 Alabama 46
34 Texas 41
35 California 40
36 Missouri 39
37 South Carolina 39
38 Washington 38
39 Florida 35
40 Puerto Rico 33
41 Oklahoma 31
42 Kentucky 25
43 Maine 23
44 Arkansas 18
45 Idaho 14
46 Oregon 14
47 Wyoming 14
48 West Virginia 13
49 Vermont 12
50 Alaska 4
51 Hawaii 1
52 Montana 1

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 972
2 New Jersey 871
3 Connecticut 683
4 Massachusetts 557
5 Louisiana 419
6 Michigan 402
7 District of Columbia 340
8 Rhode Island 279
9 Pennsylvania 218
10 Illinois 203
11 Maryland 191
12 Delaware 172
13 Indiana 165
14 Colorado 144
15 Georgia 109
16 Washington 109
17 Mississippi 97
18 Ohio 87
19 Nevada 83
20 Vermont 81
21 Virginia 72
22 Minnesota 70
23 New Mexico 66
24 Florida 63
25 New Hampshire 61
26 Missouri 60
27 Oklahoma 60
28 Alabama 58
29 Wisconsin 57
30 California 56
31 Kentucky 56
32 Iowa 55
33 South Carolina 51
34 Arizona 48
35 Kansas 48
36 Maine 41
37 North Carolina 40
38 Nebraska 39
39 Idaho 35
40 Tennessee 32
41 North Dakota 31
42 Texas 30
43 West Virginia 27
44 Oregon 25
45 Arkansas 23
46 South Dakota 23
47 Puerto Rico 16
48 Utah 15
49 Montana 14
50 Wyoming 12
51 Hawaii 11
52 Alaska 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 36
2 Connecticut 25
3 Massachusetts 21
4 District of Columbia 16
5 New York 15
6 Rhode Island 14
7 Michigan 11
8 Louisiana 10
9 Pennsylvania 10
10 Illinois 9
11 Maryland 9
12 Delaware 8
13 Indiana 7
14 Minnesota 4
15 Mississippi 4
16 New Hampshire 4
17 New Mexico 4
18 Colorado 3
19 South Dakota 3
20 Virginia 3
21 Arizona 2
22 California 2
23 Florida 2
24 Georgia 2
25 Iowa 2
26 Missouri 2
27 Nevada 2
28 North Dakota 2
29 Ohio 2
30 Oklahoma 2
31 South Carolina 2
32 Vermont 2
33 Alabama 1
34 Arkansas 1
35 Kentucky 1
36 Nebraska 1
37 North Carolina 1
38 Texas 1
39 Washington 1
40 West Virginia 1
41 Wisconsin 1
42 Alaska 0
43 Hawaii 0
44 Idaho 0
45 Kansas 0
46 Maine 0
47 Montana 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Puerto Rico 0
50 Tennessee 0
51 Utah 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 119,107 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 62,730 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 47,039 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 41,565 4 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,565 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 4,142 222 92
Richland South Carolina 2,275 490 84
Pierce Washington 1,646 705 77
Orange California 838 1228 60
York South Carolina 779 1308 58

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 2,803 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,227 2 99
Early Georgia 1,963 3 99
Nassau New York 1,597 4 99
Essex New Jersey 1,583 5 99
Richland South Carolina 91 526 83
Pierce Washington 57 733 76
Davidson Tennessee 40 908 71
Orange California 16 1278 59
York South Carolina 11 1360 56

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons